Darrow by the Numbers!

[breakthroughs]

'Sup Darrowians!

I was working on a tag for this handsome, analytical motherfucker here when I decided to go all-out and validate the estimates that I was drawing up about the city. What started as a desire to mention that on average, individuals brought into Darrow stayed about a year turned into...

DID YOU KNOW...

Darrow has had 226 played characters, counting all iterations that they have been brought into the city?

The mean length of stay of all played characters in Darrow is 313.4 days, with each additional day bringing up that average by roughly 0.7 days?

The eleven remaining characters from Day One have now been in game for 674 days?

Excluding the opening month of the game, September has been the month of the year with the most new characters added?

Below are graphs for the months of entrance into the city, as well as total months of stay:

SOME FUN CHARACTER MILESTONES

Today, February 4th, marks the passing of the...

...365th day for Jessica Day!
...500th day for Summer Roberts!
...666th day for Spike!

I looked for any day 69ers and there are none. Boo.


Just some food for thought.

If you have questions about how many days your character has been in game, let me know. Probably not difficult to calculate on your own, but I have them all handy anyway! ♥


Best,
Di

Comments

[outfoxy]

you have a problem

but i appreciate visual aids, that first graph is so ~bouncy

[breakthroughs]

started by your tag

why did you give me an observation that can be validated quantitatively

fml

bouncebouncebounce

[outfoxy]

one of these is sufficient isn't it

[breakthroughs]

i don't understand that reference

[outfoxy]

it's a ballpark

/sage nod

[breakthroughs]

reminded of why my mom says i think too literally

[outfoxy]

it's ok. sometimes i literally don't think, so together we average out

[breakthroughs]

ilusfm

[silverhammer]

:O holy crap I didn't realize it was Jess's Darrowversary.

[breakthroughs]

LMFAO that icon paired with that comment. 8DDD

[thetinydemon]

Number of the devil, aw yeah

[breakthroughs]

IT'S YOUR DAY, SPIKE

[myonlydefense]

this is amaaaaazing.

stiles' year is coming up soon i think

[breakthroughs]

baby stiles, must celebrate the darrowversary *u*

[badtotheclone]

I love you so much right now.

[breakthroughs]

I LOVE YOU TOO, BRAD.

Player pages are rendering weirdly right now on Darrow wiki (something about the back-end code has borked, I think), but I gave you Billy and Tauriel images on your player page, and also cleaned up their character pages. I hope you don't mind. >.> <333

[badtotheclone]

Ooh, thank you for the wiki page updates! You're always welcome to do whatever you want to them since I never touch them.

[badtotheclone]

Questions this data makes me wonder:

1) How would the first graph compare to a graph of tag-ins per month (meaning names tagged into posts)? It would be interesting to see if the decline in app numbers is preceded by a decline in tag-ins in the months prior and vice-versa with high app months. It might hint at a correlation between apps and reqs being a driving factor in high or low appage.

2) Number of dropped characters for each month. Again, going off of #1, seeing if there is any correlation between characters being dropped followed by an increase in apps.

3) Does graph number 2 include both characters that are still in the city and those that have dropped, or just one of those? Would be interested to see just a graph of those that have dropped to see if there's some sort of tipping point, like if they don't drop in month 1-4, they usually hang on until months 8+.

[breakthroughs]

1) I could definitely do this, but my suspicion is actually that variables which would matter more include seasonality and film releases. I also think the second year of the game is definitely more indicative of what this trend will continue to look like moving forward. Take a look at, for example, December generally being a low app month (thanks to holidays) and January being high (probably back from holidays, new year and new excitement). In the second year, summer apps were also really slow, which aligns to what I generally felt in some other RPs. Lots of people are vacationing and just kind of inconsistently around in general.

2) Let me see what I can do for that. XD

3) Includes both characters! I can separate it out, it was just faster to include all.

[breakthroughs]

Here is the answer for #2:





And actually, if you look at the Aug-Oct 2013 portion, that seems to kind of reflect what I suspect about seasonality. With people actually being consistently around and not broken up by lots of vacations, more people app, and less people drop.

[badtotheclone]

Yeah, the seasonality doesn't surprise me. Obviously it's a super small sample size and a short period of time for the data but I'll be curious to see if the data trends continue. If I was teaching I would totally use the blue line in graph two to show how a short time period (July 12 to Feb 13) is a poor indicator of trends, no matter how evident a trend might seem.

[breakthroughs]

And here's the answer for #3:





The two high-end anomalies for graph 1 are a purged character who was inactive for several months before the purge and Blaine Anderson. Otherwise, looks like six months and nine months are the evaluation times (half a year, 3/4 of a year, maybe?).

The two characters coming in under a month are Alessa (temporary) and a character who debuted and never showed up again (I put them down for 0 days).

Mean length of stay for dropped characters is 242.8 days and 342.8 days for active.

[badtotheclone]

Hah, there does seem to be a sort of hump/tipping point for keeping characters at 6 and 9 months! It amuses me that it's a bell curve but where the height of the curve should be, it's actually at 0.

Also, it appears that the 6/9 month time frame isn't just a percentage thing (x% of characters apped in November will drop around 6 or 9 months). A high influx of characters in one month doesn't lead to a high number of drops 5, 6, 9 or 10 months later.